Uh Oh, here comes the next MJO!

We have learned a new weather buzzword sitting here in Tonga during cyclone season... the MJO. We're not sure why we've never heard of this phenomenon, because it does appear to have a big effect on tropical systems brewing up, and it does seem global. From what we understand, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is an area of 'disturbed' weather that slowly circles the globe, around the equator. It comes around about every 40 days or so. I am sure our Florida Hurricane forecasters are watching it during Hurricane Season, but are probably calling it by another name. In the SW Pacific, they call it the MJO.

The last time the MJO was in our area was when Cyclone Cyril popped up overnight, and then was followed a few days later by very strong Cyclone Jasmine. We've been watching the MJO forecast as the wave of wet weather has circled the globe, and knew it was due in our area again soon. Some links are provided below.

A 15-Day GFS Version of the MJO Forecast
One version of the forecast is a series of strip charts. Each chart is a (very small) flat graphic of the world. The top one is the current status. The succeeding ones are forecasts, advancing every 5 days. The green areas of the chart shows the 'rainy weather' that helps brew up the cyclones. It probably causes less than fine weather in the tropics whenever it passes over, and helps spawn cyclones/hurricanes during the Season. The brown areas show dry weather, where it's likely to be more stable weather. It could be a good long-range planning tool for the sailor in the tropics!

Well, the MJO is almost here in the SW Pacific. Today's 10-day GFS forecast (aka GRIB file) shows no less than 4 1000-MB or less Low Pressure areas forming north and west of us, and heading our way. One, spinning up near Vanuatu (off the East coast of Australia), on April 3rd, is down to 975 Mb. That's a pretty deep low. So we're on high alert. We probably won't be doing much diving in the next 10 days!

The more I research this issue, the less I understand! The Weather Guessers are still trying to figure out how to forecast this phenomenon, so all of this is experimental. Below are some helpful links I have found.

40-Day EWP Version of the MJO Forecast

15-Day GFS Version of the MJO Forecast

(note that the 2 above forecasts do not agree)

Australia's MJO Page

Global Tropical Hazards Outlook - This one is my favorite because I understand the graphics and it tries to take into consideration all the wx factors (ENSO, MJO, SOI, La Nina, El Nino, etc)
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Hanging out in Tonga for cyclone season!
At 03/24/2012 8:12 PM (utc) our position was 18°42.83'S 174°02.52'W
http://svsoggypaws.com/currentposition.htm

A Day Trip Around Neiafu

We have been continuing off-season maintenance projects, and a few diving expeditions. But last Monday we took a break from our work and diving, and did an "island tour" of Neiafu.

In his typical fashion, Dave asked every taxi driver he met for quotes and offers, and got a range of propositions, from $100 Tongan per person to $25 Tongan per person. So we finally set up with "Primrose", one of the prominent members of the Neiafu Market, and also a taxi driver, to do an island tour for $25 per person. We squeezed 5 of us (Pimmie+4 of us) into his 2-door Bronco, and spent all day driving around with Primrose. We pretty much drove every inch of developed road in Vavau.

Sherry & Amy with Primrose
We stopped and looked at the small farms that grow the vegetables we see in the market--so we could identify the plants ourselves better.

Taro Fields
We stopped at the Botanical Gardens for a drink, but didn't go inside (we plan to do that on another day). We also saw the airport, and the nice new roads that the Chinese are building for Tonga.

We stopped at one of the 'barns' that the local women meet in to work on their weaving together. They were weaving both floor and wall mats and ta'ovalas (a finely woven mat that is wrapped around the waist and tied with a rope--the Tongan equivalent of wearing a tie). Wikipedia comments on Ta'ovala.

The Tongan Equivalent of a Sewing Circle



This is actually an article of dress clothing in Tonga
We stopped at the largest Kava processing plant in Neiafu.

The Kava Processing "Plant"

Kava is a plant that is harvested for its root and stem. When powdered and then 'brewed', it makes a mild narcotic drink that is a traditional ceremonial drink in Tonga and Fiji. (More on Kava ceremonies when we get to Fiji). Kava is a much better cash crop these days than Copra (dried cocounut harvested for coconut oil). Wikipedia on Kava

Kava Growing

Kava Chips Drying

The Kava Crusher

Powdered Kava Ready to Bag
One unexpected highlight was a short stop at a lookout place that happened to be next to an elementary school. The kids were at recess, and when we waved to them, they rushed to the fence and all waved at us eagerly.

School Kids at Recess
Roger from s/v Shango wanted to give a few of them a "high five". Little did he know that they ALL wanted to high five!!

Roger High Fiving the Whole School
As we drove away, we commented to Primrose that, in America, we probably would have been arrested for loitering about a school yard... sigh... it was hard explaining that one fully to Primrose.

It was a worthwhile day, especially for the chance to get a Tongan perspective on things, from someone who speaks pretty good English. Here are a few other random pictures we took on the 'tour'.

A Typical Local Boat, used for both Fishing and Ferry Duties

A Methodist Church High on a Hill in a Small Town--With "Stained Glass" Windows

Tongan Version of an Auto Parts Store

A Lovely Tongan Gravesite With the Best View on Neiafu
This was also the day they announced that the King of Tonga had passed away unexpectedly in Hong Kong. So in addition to Pimmie's comments on all things Tongan in Neiafu, we got an up-close perspective on the King's passing, his likely successor, and what the funeral will be like.

The King is Dead, Long Live the King

We heard on Monday morning that the current King of Tonga, King George Tupou V, aged 63, passed away unexpectedly on Sunday afternoon in Hong Kong.

The Late King George Tupou V
I had just been reading an account from cruising friends of ours, in the SSCA Bulletin, about their experiences in Tonga when the previous King (George Tupou IV) had died. So the timing was uncanny.

The Kingdom of Tonga is a 'democratic monarchy', similar to England. There is a King and he represents Tonga, but there is also an elected Parliament. It took 2-3 days before the 'government' announced exactly what would happen for the funeral. The funeral is this coming Tuesday. The King's body will be flown in from Hong Kong on Monday, and transported by car from the airport to the royal estate. From there, in traditional fashion, the King's body will be loaded on a bier and carried on the shoulders of 140 Tongan men, to where he will lie in state until the funeral on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the clans scattered throughout Tonga are preparing to make their way, bearing huge amounts of food, to the capital city of Tongatapu, for the funeral and the funeral feast. We understand that all flights from Neiafu to the capital are fully booked, and they are sending a special ferry through the islands to bring the people to the funeral. They announced on the VHF this morning that the ferry will arrive today, and take on 400 passengers (plus their pigs, cows, and huge baskets of Tongan vegetables). Each clan has a specific role in the funeral preparations. For example, one clan is responsible for the cooking of the feast, another for setting up the venue, etc.

They announced on Friday morning here, that the market and most of the town will be closed on Monday and Tuesday, so there was a huge rush for groceries on Friday. But there wasn't much on sale at the market on Friday morning... we assume it has been held back for their own feasting, both in Tongatapu and locally. Fortunately, we were already pretty well stocked.

We understand that the official mourning period has been set for 90 days. But the ex-pats in Neiafu said that things here will return mostly to normal after this coming week.

We understand that it may take nearly a year before the new king, King George Tupou VI, is actually crowned. The recent king was unmarried and had no children, so his younger brother has been named the successor. However, there is an important, but unofficial kava ceremony scheduled for Saturday with the new king, and the heads of the Tongan noble families.

I am sure there is a Tongan news website, but I have been unable to find one. We've been getting our news bits from the local VHF net, and from Radio New Zealand International

Diving and Exploring Vavau

As our little world has slowly been pieced back together after TC Cyril, and while we are waiting for our shipment of fiberglass supplies from NZ, we have been doing a lot of diving, and exploring of the Vavau area of Tonga.

Riki's Small But Fast Dive Boat
We have made a nice connection with a very small dive operation here called Riki Tiki Tours. Riki is a Kiwi who settled here in Tonga about 15 years ago. Right now, in the off-season, Riki is the only dive operation actually open/operating. All the other dive operators are either off-island, or are in "maintenance mode" with equipment down or shipped off to NZ for refurbishment.

A Typical Vavau Wall Dive
Riki has 2 dive boats--one that accommodates 1-2 people, and another that will squeeze 6 friendly people in. He specializes in taking out the small groups of divers that don't interest the bigger operators, and the 'budget divers'. He has a compressor, and 6-8 sets of dive gear in good shape. Dave bargained with Riki for a good off-season price, if we can fill his 6-person boat. So we have been going out with Shango and Sea Flyer on Riki's boat for a 2-tank dive once a week. We have gotten a chance to see most of the popular dive sites near Neiafu with Riki.

An Anemone Garden on Top of a Coral Bommie
Here's Riki's website: http://www.rikitikitonga.com

In addition, on the weekends, when the weather is good, we have been going out exploring on our own, and doing a little diving out of our dinghies. We have so far been to anchorages at Mala (#6), Mounu (#40), Euakafa (#32), and Taunga (#23). They are all very pretty, but most have the typical problem in Tonga that the bottom is coral or sheet-rock and/or the anchorage is exposed (settled weather only).

A Crinoid in Full Bloom

(it is actually an animal, not a plant)

Huge Live Coral Heads

After all the dead coral in Fr Poly, this is nice to see

A Lionfish Out Swimming Around

Dave Caught This Tiny Red Pipefish in a Cave

A Clown Triggerfish

I hope to add comments from our personal experience in my growing Tonga Compendium about our experiences at these anchorages. (see http://svsoggypaws.com/files/ for the latest version of the Tonga Compendium).

I am continuing to refine and add our personal experiences to the Vavau Dive Sites information, here:

http://www.svsoggypaws.com/tongadive/

This is still a major work in progress--we are adding our own dive sites, and photos, as well as spiffing up the entire package (ie Google Maps).

The weather is nice now, but the long range forecast indicates maybe one more bout of unsettled weather next weekend, as the Madden Julian Oscillation ripples over the Tonga area again. (The weather gurus say the MJO was responsible for TC Cyril's sudden appearance about a month ago). We are holding off putting our sails back on until after that goes by. Until then, we are enjoying ourselves, but as a motor yacht.

Dinghy motor update: Dave is still wrestling with his beloved 5hp Nissan motor. He thought he had it finally fixed--it ran perfectly one evening for a trip across Neiafu Harbor for dinner, but then wouldn't start for the trip back. We ended up rowing back across the harbor in the moonlight. Fortunately the wind was only about 10 knots and not against us. There is an intermittant electrical issue that he just hasn't been able to run down. It either starts immediately and runs great, or it won't--no spark at all.

At 03/11/2012 7:52 PM (utc) our position was 18°45.17'S 174°02.28'W
http://svsoggypaws.com/currentposition.htm

Progress on Repairs

Well, the weather has continued "mostly fine" (as is reported by the Tonga Met Service). We have made a lot of progress on our repairs.

Dave Gluing the Interior Patch with 3M 5200
- The dinghy is fully patched and back in operation
- The 5HP outboard is back together, but still has some problems
- The Monitor Wind Vane has been straightened and re-mounted
- Our port stern rail has been removed and is in to the welder for repairs
- Our order for epoxy and other repair material has finally left NZ

Dave and the Welder Mounting the Monitor Wind Vane
Dave has spent a LOT of time working on the small outboard motor--the one that was on the dinghy during the cyclone, and which got broken in half and sunk. This is a 19 year old Nissan 5HP, which Dave has owned since he bought it used in 1998. It has been a reliable motor, and Dave is very attached to it. When we recovered the pieces from the bottom after the storm, I assumed they'd go in the dumpster. But Larry on the Ark Gallery (whom we were renting the mooring from) said he had a couple of non-working Nissans in his storage unit, and he said he could supply a usable frame, and get his local mechanic to swap the broken pieces and get it working again.

Dave Taking the 5HP Outboard Apart Again
After 2 tries, the motor was returned to us, fully assembled and supposedly working. It did start at least once after we got it back, but the next time we tried to start it, it wouldn't start. So Dave has been fiddling with it in his spare time. It has been on and off the dinghy several times in the last few days--first with fuel issues, and now with electrical/spark issues. Fortunately, we have a nearly a full array of spare electrical parts for this motor, so I am confident Dave will get it working reliably again soon. We returned the loaner dinghy and outboard to the Ark Gallery last weekend, and we're using our 15HP motor on our dinghy in the meantime.

While the weather has stayed nice, we have been taking time to dive and explore the Vavau area. I have also been given a set of waypoints for dive spots around Vavau, and have been working on publishing them so all the cruisers coming this year can take advantage of them. The beginnings of my 'Diving Vavau' site is here:

http://www.svsoggypaws.com/tongadive/

Christmas in February

We finally received our shipment from Los Angeles. This was a crate that our friends from Shango arranged to ship in late December. They shipped solar panels, bottom paint, dive gear, and a bunch of miscellaneous stuff. We shipped a few boxes--new cruising and diving guides, some spare parts, a bunch of vitamins, and other miscellaneous stuff.

Dave taking our boxes out to the boat

We used SF Enterprises, which is a Tongan family-run business. We had stuff shipped from all over the U.S. directly to SF Enterprises' LA office, with Shango's name on it. Roger and Amy used their 8 hour layover in LA to go to the warehouse and pack the crate up (not absolutely necessary, but they wanted to ensure their expensive new solar panels were properly packed).

The shipment went by freighter to Nuku'alofa, Tonga, and SF Enterprises in Nuku'alofa then delivered it by ferry to Vava'u, where it was delivered to the Customs shed. Roger had to do a bank transfer to SF Enterprises in the U.S. before they would ship the goods up to Vavau. On arrival, we also had to pay some kind of paperwork fee to the shipping company, Reef Shipping.

We used Linda from Jetsave Travel in Neiafu (also the Fed Ex agent) as our Customs Agent, to get the goods released from Customs. An agent is not absolutely necessary, especially if you have invoices for EVERYTHING you've shipped, but there is a lot of paperwork involved, in Tongan. Linda helped a lot with the voluminous paperwork, and getting all the miscellaneous stuff (which we did not have invoices for) cleared, and we felt that her fee was very reasonable for the effort required on her part.

Most of the parts were considered 'repair parts', and covered under the "Yacht In Transit" rule (no duty in Tonga). Books are also duty-free. However, some things, like the dive gear, clothing, and food items, were dutiable. Dive gear ended up being taxed at almost 40%--but there isn't any dive gear available here, so there was no other option. Fortunately, we had helped Roger buy used stuff, so the tax was on less-than-retail prices. Other items, the duty was only 15%.

Some items--like tobacco, are really heavily taxed. We shipped 4 1-pound bags of pipe tobacco for Larry of the Ark Gallery in the shipment. These cost $84 in the U.S., but the Tongan duty was $240 pa'anga (about $150 USD). We left them with Customs in Larry's name--for him to decide if he wanted to pay or just leave it there. We could probably have brought some of the tobacco in our luggage duty-free had we known it would be taxed separately--like everywhere else, you are allowed a limited amount of stuff in when you fly in, duty free.

Snorkeling the Coral Gardens at Vaka Eitu (#16)

The weather has been so beautiful that, on Sunday, we decided to take a little time off to play.

Watching the Sun Rise on Another Sunny Day
My argument at the time to Dave was "We can still do our work out in the outer anchorages." But truth be told, we've not gotten much work done these last 2 days.

On Sunday, we had a nice Sunday breakfast, and then hauled anchor and joined our friends Roger and Amy on Shango, out at Vaka Eitu (Anchorage 16). They, sustaining no damage in Cyril, have been out exploring around these last few days. We arrived at the anchorage about 1:15pm, and by 1:30, we were in the dinghies heading for the "Coral Garden" reef (north of the anchorage).

Nice Beach, with Reef Beyond, at Vaka Eitu
The last time we snorkeled this reef, it was just after high tide, and fairly calm, and we (carefully) drove the dinghies out through the swell/small breakers to the deep side of the reef. We hadn't taken much time to snorkel then--we were afraid the falling tide would trap us outside the reef. This time, we left the dinghies on the beach and "Shamu-ed" out over the reef. It was pretty calm, but fairly low tide. It would be helpful doing this to have booties, gloves, and at least a rash guard or light wetsuit. I had none of those things, and still fared OK. We had to start swimming in shallow water, time our passage over the shallowest parts (so we didn't get crashed on by a wave), and suck up our bellies so they didn't drag as we snorkeled out. Half of the time, you were fighting the pull of the wave action. I found it was easiest to grab the (old, dead) coral on the bottom to pull myself along (hence gloves would be handy, because there's no time for careful hand placement).

We Have the Big Bay All to Ourselves
Once outside, we found the beautiful coral just as beautiful as we had before. This is absolutely the best array of live hard and soft coral we have seen in the entire South Pacific so far. We also saw some fantastic carpet anemones--one was about a meter square, mixed among the coral, and full of anemone fish. The water wasn't as clear as our last snorkel, but still very nice, and cleared up (and became cooler) as the tide finally turned and started coming in from the deeper water. We spent about an hour playing out on the reef and over the drop-off. We surveyed the area for a potential SCUBA dive some time in the future (we're still waiting for Shango's gear to arrive). We'll for sure be back to dive the deeper part of the reef, soon.

S/V Shango, Sharing the Anchorage with Us
We had a beautiful sunset--cocktails aboard Shango--and a quiet night.

At 02/19/2012 7:35 PM (utc) our position was 18°43.22'S 174°06.10'W
http://svsoggypaws.com/currentposition.htm

Sunny Weather for the Next Week!

Tropical Storm Jasmine is slowly moving south and east and dissolving. YAY!

Yesterday was beautiful. The wind died off to about 10 knots, and the sun was out for most of the day. The only rain we got was a tiny sprinkle, just as we sat down to dinner.

We finally went ashore last night and had our 'Valentine's Dinner'. The Aquarium Cafe was doing a BBQ night, and we went ashore for that.

Their 'sail' (large awning for a roof over most of their cafe) was torn up in TC Cyril, so we were sitting outside watching the sun go down and smelling the chicken barbecuing on the grill. MMMM!!

Just as it was getting dark, and we were all picking up our forks, it started sprinkling. Fortunately there was room to move inside. We moved back outside under the stars as soon as the rain quit.

It was a beautiful dinghy ride across the harbor, under the stars. And a nice quiet night.

The memories of 4 weeks of crappy weather is already receding!

Bye Bye Jasmine!

It is ironic that, with Jasmine approaching us, and hovering over southern Tonga, we have had the best string of weather in a month--2 whole days with mostly sun!! (smiling)

Soggy Paws at the Work Dock
With the sun out we have been able to clean up and get some things done. Keeping a very close eye on Jasmine, yesterday we pulled alongside the work pier next to Customs, and James the Welder fitted our swim platform back on. This piece was critical because without it, getting out of the dinghy was difficult, and getting out of the water was impossible. We can now go swimming again.

James and Dave Putting Swim Platform Back On
We have also been working on an order for fiberglass repair material out of New Zealand. We have the order mostly complete, but it will take 2-3 weeks to arrive from NZ. We have an experienced fiberglasser lined up to do the repairs when the supplies arrive.

Next up on Dave's list is to try to repair the dinghy. Unfortunately, what dinghy repair glue we have is toast. And we're still trying to locate the patch material onboard. We may have to wait for our shipment from NZ for dinghy repairs. But we have been loaned a dinghy for the duration, so it is not critical.

The outboard motor should be done pretty soon. Dave cleaned up the carburetor, and the foot, and then handed it off to Noah, the local outboard mechanic, to pull it all together. The broken bracket is being replaced by another one from a dead outboard.

Thanks for everyone's kind comments, expressions of sympathy, offers of help, and even the "I Told You So" from Doug on Fellow Traveler. We are just thankful that we had no irreversible damage to either boat or to any person involved.

Dave's Latitude 38 Article

Dave's article on South Pacific Crossing Strategies just got published in the February edition of Latitude 38. Latitude 38 is a west coast sailing magazine similar to Southwinds in the SE.

You can download the whole Latitude 38 for free from here:

http://www.latitude38.com/ebooks.html

Or just Dave's article from our website here:

http://www.svsoggypaws.com/files/Lat38-SoPacStrategies.pdf